We are taking a stake in Iowa +15000 future today. At 150/1 it is worth this gamble – their metrics are all much better than their value shows.
Future Model’s Edge?
Our models suggest that this number should be in the +8000 to +9000 range, offering a 75%+ edge on this future.
Will Iowa win the NCAAT?
The field is as strong as ever before – anyone CAN win it. Why not Iowa? They have arguably the best play in college in Keegan Murray. They have shooters who are streaky. Almost any game Keegan Murrays plays in he is the most impactful guy on the floor. Odds are against Iowa, but this is a value pick right here. We have a stable of good futures right now (Auburn 40/1, Kentucky 20/1) and adding Iowa provides us with a valuable hedge opportunity down the line.
Any shooting luck coming according to our ShotQTM model?
Not only do our models see an inefficiency in their future line, but our ShotQTM model also has some possible shooting luck coming their way as their O ShotQTM (offensive shot quality) ranks better than their eFG%.
Summary:
Therefore, we see any small possible “luck” combining with the competitive advantage of the inefficient future line (where we have a 76% edge model vs. actual) to provide some great value here for Iowa.
Pick: Iowa +15000
Reason: Value
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