The 2022 men’s NCAA tournament bracket is set! You need cutting edge information to make the right picks in your pool. You need the evaluations that you can’t find anywhere else.
We’ve got you covered with our 68-team guide.
It’s everything you need to know from every team’s best player, their x-factor, team trends, player data, and how each team plays and wins games.
*If you just want SparkNotes version of every team to help you through your picks, this guide will help you win.
**If you want proprietary information and detailed evaluations to find the winning edge, this guide will help you win.
Potential Upsets for Each Seed:
10 – Loyola (IL) over Ohio State
11 – Virginia Tech over Texas
12 – New Mexico State over UConn
13 – South Dakota State over Providence
14 – Colgate over Wisconsin
15 – Jacksonville State over Auburn
16 – Only happened once before and not likely to happen this year. Have to pick one: Georgia State over Gonzaga
Which Region is Strongest? Weakest?
According to our team evaluations and proprietary information the Midwest is by far the weakest region. This region will be won by either Kansas, Auburn, or Iowa.
The hardest region is clearly the South region. They essentially have two #2 seeds in Tennessee and Villanova. Houston is a dangerously good 5 seed. Arizona has been awesome all year long. This region has 3 of the best mid major teams in Loyola (IL), UAB, and Colorado State. Even Michigan as an 11 seed will be problematic for the top seeds. This region is completely up for grabs.
Final 4 Picks
Gonzaga, UCLA, Houston, Iowa. Gonzaga vs. Houston. Houston wins.
Championship Game
Houston beats Gonzaga
Team/Player Previews for All 68 Teams:
WEST REGION
Gonzaga – 1 seed
Top 3 seed profile: This year there aren’t any elite teams; Gonzaga is a great team though. It’s a loaded roster. Drew Timme and Chet Holmgen are stars and most teams do not have 2 bigs to matchup with them.
Player that could take over: Chet Holmgren
X factor: Andrew Nembhard
How they win: They want to play fast and get out in transition (97th percentile transition impact). 7-footer Chet Holmgren can lead the break making them very tough to defend. They also want to get the ball inside to Timme and Holmgren – they are in the 99th percentile in 2 point impact. Getting the ball to the rim with Timme and Holmgren has culminated in Gonzaga taking the best shots as they rank 1st in our offensive shot quality, ShotQ.
Georgia State – 16 seed
Player that could take over: Corey Allen
X factor: Kane Williams
How they win: They cause some havoc on defense – it can really change the whole game for an underdog. They are in the 97th percentile for defensive press impact and 94th percentile in defensive aggressiveness. Corey Allen is a 40%+ shooter from deep and went 5/6 from 3 in their conference championship game – they will need him to be lights out.
Boise State – 8 seed
Player that could take over: Tyson Degenhart
X factor: Marcus Shaver
How they win: They play at their pace – they are 4th percentile in offensive speed. Tyson Degenhart is a name not many know, but will be after their first game – he is a future pro. Boise State probably lacks the upside advantage to knock off a top team.
Memphis – 9 seed
Player that could take over: Deandre Williams
X factor: Jalen Duran
How they win: Memphis had real hype entering the season and then went 9-8 to start the season. Their tournament chances were dwindling. Future NBA player, Emoni Bates, left the team. Then it all changed. They have won 12 of their last 14 games. Jalen Duran and Deandre Williams will be a problem inside for any team that plays them. They are 95th percentile in 2 point impact and 99th percentile in offensive rebound impact thanks to this tremendous duo.
Connecticut – 5 seed
Player that could take over: RJ Cole
X factor: Adama Sanogo
How they win: This is a long team and, when they want to, they can be as physical as any team. They are 100th percentile in offensive rebound impact. They also use their athleticism to their advantage to get out and attack in transition.
New Mexico State – 12 seed
Player that could take over: Teddy Allen
X factor: Sir’Jabari Rice
How they win: They like to get the ball into the paint to 6’7” Johnny McCants and 6’10” William McNair. McCants can both attack inside or stretch the floor to provide spacing. New Mexico State is 87th percentile in paint touch volume.
UPSET ALERT: New Mexico State has a high likelihood of pulling off an upset over UConn.
Arkansas – 4 seed
Player that could take over: JD Notae
X factor: Jaylin Williams
How they win: This is an athletic group that likes to play out in transition – 92nd percentile in transition impact. Arkansas won’t beat you from deep. They are in the 10th percentile in 3 point impact. At some point in the tournament this will be their downfall.
Vermont – 13 seed
Player that could take over: Ryan Davis
X factor: Ben Shungu
How they win: Vermont has a legitimate stud in big man Ryan Davis. The name of their game is ball movement. They make great passes leading to great shots, especially from 3 where they are 95th percentile in 3 point impact. This type of impact from 3 gives any underdog a chance in March.
UPSET ALERT: Vermont has a high likelihood of pulling off an upset over Arkansas.
Alabama – 6 seed
Player that could take over:
X factor: Jahvon Quinerly
How they win: They take great shots and have players who make those shots. They want to play fast (87th percentile in offensive speed) and hunt 3s in transition. Every shot they take will either be at the rim or from 3 so they won’t have inefficient shot allocation to bite them. Villanova transfer Jahvon Quinerly struggled to start this year but is playing better ball and they need him at his best.
Rutgers – 11 seed
Player that could take over: Ron Harper
X factor: Paul Mulcahy
How they win: Rutgers has some great wins this year against top teams. At their best, they can knock off tops teams in their region. They want to put their playmakers (namely Mulcahy and Geo Baker) in ball screens to create for their offense. They are 79th percentile in ball screen volume. If they get opponents who can’t guard the ball screen, these playmakers will destroy them.
Notre Dame – 11 seed
Player that could take over: Paul Atkinson
X factor: Dane Goodwin
How they win: They win games with their 3 point impact – they are 97th in 3 point impact. In a tournament like this, this strength matters even more than during the regular season. Yale transfer Paul Atkinson provides them with a strong presence inside. Notre Dame has the talent to take down some top teams, but they have also lost 3 of their last 6 games.
Texas Tech – 3 seed
Top 3 seed profile: It’s all about defense for Texas Tech. They lost head coach Chris Beard to Texas, but their defensive coordinator Mark Adams took over the ship and his defensive scheme has Texas Tech in position to compete for a national championship. They are long, athletic, and aggressive.
Player that could take over: Bryson Williams
X factor: Terrance Shannon
How they win: Texas Tech defense is elite. They keep you out of the middle of floor and their length and athleticism makes it hard to do anything against them. Their lineups are completely switchable as their smallest is 6-5 200 pound Adonis Arms and their tallest is super versatile Bryson Williams at 6-8. Their whole rotation is long and plays into you – their defensive aggressiveness is 89th percentile.
Montana State – 14 seed
Player that could take over: Jubrile Belo
X factor: Amin Adamu
How they win: Montana State has momentum on their side as they have won 18 of their last 20 games. It starts inside first for them. They are in the 90th percentile in paint touch volume. Big man Jubrile Belo needs to be a dominant force inside so that they can create more open looks from deep for a team that already shoots it well.
Michigan State – 7 seed
Player that could take over: Marcus Bingham
X factor: Joey Hauser
How they win: It is Tom Izzo in March, so whatever you think you know about Michigan State this year is probably irrelevant now. He is a magician when it comes to the Big Dance. This is a team that moves the ball well and gets good looks. They are 79th percentile in 3 point impact and Joey Hauser has the talent to push this team to another level.
Davidson – 10 seed
Player that could take over: Hyunjung Lee
X factor: Luka Brajkovic
How they win: Davidson is a really skilled team and a really good shooting team. They win games from beyond the arc – 96th percentile in 3 point impact. They have the makings of a team that can pull off a major upset.
Duke – 2 seed
Top 3 seed profile: Duke has multiple 1st round picks on this roster including a top 3 pick Paolo Banchero. Banchero is a strong long athlete who has an elite spin move and can take over games. Coach K’s farewell tour could add extra motivation, but it could also be too much pressure on 18-19 year olds.
Player that could take over: Paolo Banchero
X factor: Mark Williams
How they win: They win with athleticism and talent. On Saturday, they lost to Virginia Tech because Virginia Tech had more energy and effort – they were quicker to the ball. Duke will need more energy if they want to win a title. They missed a ton of threes against Virginia Tech and they can’t afford to settle – they have to get it to the rim. They are in the 96th percentile in 2 point impact and will need to get the ball into Banchero, who has a mismatch just about every game.
Cal State Fullerton – 15 seed
Player that could take over: E.J. Anosike
X factor: Damari Milstead
How they win: They win in transition – 78th percentile transition impact. The problem for Cal State Fullerton is that their 3 point impact is in the 28th percentile, which will make it an uphill battle for them if they want to pull off an upset.
EAST REGION
Baylor – 1 seed
Top 3 seed profile: Last year’s National Champs are back again after losing many key players from last year’s run. Their style hasn’t changed. They smother teams defensively. Momentum is not on their side. After starting the year 15-0, they went 11-5 and then lost in their first conference tournament game to Oklahoma.
Player that could take over: Adam Flagler
X factor: Kendall Brown
How they win: They win on defense and running in transition (92nd percentile in transition impact). They are also dominant on the offensive glass (90th percentile in offensive rebounding impact) due in large part to 6’10 big Flo Thamba, who is an elite offensive rebounder.
Norfolk State – 16 seed
Player that could take over: Joe Bryant
X factor: Kris Bankston
How they win: They want to press you defensively and play in transition on defense. Their transition impact is 94th percentile. Joe Bryant is a player that nobody talks about, but if Norfolk State pulls off an upset it will be because of Bryant. He is one of the better players in this tournament.
North Carolina – 8 seed
Player that could take over: Armando Bacot
X factor: RJ Davis
How they win: North Carolina has an advantage with their bigs. Bacot is a machine inside and jumps 3 times to another players one. They want to get the ball inside to him and are 89th percentile in paint touches. Once the establish him, it sets up their 3s. Brady Manek is a stretch 4 and an elite shot maker.
Marquette – 9 seed
Player that could take over: Justin Lewis
X factor: Greg Elliott
How they win: Marquette beat Villanova twice in the regular season this year. That alone speaks volumes to the level of upside that exists for Marquette. Defensively, Shaka Smart is back to playing with some havoc – they are 88th percentile in defensive press impact. Offensively, they are going to give Tyler Kolek a ball screen with Kur Kuath or Justin Lewis as the screener and play out of that. They are 99th percentile in ball screen volume.
Saint Mary’s – 5 seed
Player that could take over: Tommy Kuhse
X factor: Matthias Tass
How they win: They know who they are – they are not overly athletic or quick. They play a slow game (4th percentile in offensive speed) and they use a high volume of ball screens to create advantages off the dribble – they are 93rd percentile in ball screen volume. They are a good shooting team but could be exposed by a more athletic and more physical team.
Wyoming – 12 seed
Player that could take over: Hunter Maldonado
X factor: Drake Jeffries
How they win: They want to get the ball inside to 6’9” big man Graham Ike. They are 100th percentile in paint touches. They will need 40%+ 3 point shooter, Drake Jeffries, to hit multiple threes at high clip to pull off some upsets.
Indiana – 12 seed
Player that could take over: Trayce Jackson-Davis
X factor: Xavier Johnson
How they win: Trayce Jackson-Davis is one of the 15 best players in this tournament and will be in the NBA for many years. He’s a complete player and his versatility provides Indiana with a great advantage inside. Mike Woodson’s plan is just that – get him the ball. They are 98th percentile in paint touches.
UPSET ALERT: Both Indiana and Wyoming have a high likelihood of pulling off an upset over St. Mary’s.
UCLA – 4 seed
Player that could take over: Tyger Campbell
X factor: Jaime Jaquez
How they win: UCLA is a complete team – equally good on both ends of the floor. They don’t turn it over and don’t beat themselves. They make you play at a slower pace as their offensive speed is in the 19th percentile. Their profile is similar to Villanova in that way. They have multiple players who can create their own shot and initiate offense.
Akron – 13 seed
Player that could take over: Enrique Freeman
X factor: Ali Ali
How they win: Akron plays a slow game (7th percentile in offensive speed) and wants to get the ball inside. They are 74th percentile in paint touch volume and want to feed Freeman and Ali. Ali can stretch the floor and hit 3s at a 40%+ rate, which helps their spacing and will help them in this tournament.
Texas – 6 seed
Player that could take over: Timmy Allen
X factor: Andrew Jones
How they win: Texas’ roster is loaded. Their talent is up there with the best in the country. They just haven’t really come together to play at their highest level. Individually all of their rotation players can win their matchup, but they don’t have a great system still. Their impact from 3 is minimal. Their athleticism and talent allows them to really engage defensively – they are 97th percentile in defensive aggressiveness.
Virginia Tech – 11 seed
Player that could take over: Hunter Cattoor
X factor: Justyn Mutts
How they win: Virginia Tech had to find out who they were over the course of the season. After starting the year 10-10, the Hokies went on to win 13 of their last 15 games and won the ACC championship. No one wants to play this team right now. Against Duke in the ACC championship game, they were quicker to the ball – they played with tremendous energy. They win games with tremendous ball movement and cutting leading to open 3s – they are 96th percentile in 3 point impact.
UPSET ALERT: Virginia Tech has a high likelihood of pulling off an upset over Texas.
Purdue – 3 seed
Top 3 seed profile: Purdue has one of the best frontcourts in the country and a lottery pick in Jaden Ivey. They are a mismatch for most teams.
Player that could take over: Jaden Ivey
X factor: Trevion Williams
How they win: They get the ball into the paint to their bigs (100th percentile paint touch volume). Zach Edey is 7’4” and almost 300 pounds and Trevion Williams is the best passing big in the country. These 2 are really tough matchups for most teams and then NBA lottery pick Jaden Ivey makes it even harder. They are very conservative on defense and could be exploited by a team getting hot from 3.
Yale – 14 seed
Player that could take over: Azar Swain
X factor: Jalen Gabbidon
How they win: Yale wins because Swain can take games over with his impact. He is a player that can take over an NCAA tournament game as an on-ball playmaker. They are a sound team all the way through and will need a big game from Swain to advance in the first round.
Murray State – 7 seed
Player that could take over: Tevin Brown
X factor: K.J. Williams
How they win: They dominate the inside with DJ Burns and KJ Williams. They are in the 78th percentile in paint touch volume, 92nd percentile in 2 point impact, and 95th percentile in offensive rebounding impact. They also like to attack in transition and hunt transition 3s. Tevin Brown is a top 5 shooter in this tournament who can explode in any game.
San Francisco – 10 seed
Player that could take over: Jamaree Bouyea
X factor: Khalil Shabazz
How they win: They have some great on-ball playmakers that they put into ball screens to create mismatches and get open 3s. They are in the 85th percentile in ball screen volume. Bouyea and Shabazz can both do damage in the ball screen and can create matchup problems for most teams. Bouyea has a game like Shamorie Ponds.
Kentucky – 2 seed
Top 3 seed profile: This is the best Kentucky team in the last few seasons led by player of the year candidate Oscar Tshiebwe. He is built like a machine and plays like a machine – scores inside, blocks shots, and grabs almost every rebound. Unlike previous Kentucky teams this is an older group and they have surrounded Tshiebwe with perimeter plays who can all create their own shot or spotup.
Player that could take over: Oscar Tshiebwe
X factor: Tyty Washington
How they win: They win at the rim – they are 100th percentile in 2 point impact and 98th percentile in offensive rebounding impact, due in large part to Oscar Tshiebwe. They win at the rim and their downfall has been from beyond the arc. They lost to Tennessee in the SEC tournament after shooting 2 for 20 from 3. They are in the 46th percentile in 3 point impact.
Saint Peter’s – 15 seed
Player that could take over: KC Ndefo
X factor: Doug Edert
How they win: They love to attack teams defensively. They are 95th percentile in defensive aggressiveness. This team prides itself on defense and it all starts with Ndefo. The question for them will be can they hit enough shots to stay in the game.
SOUTH REGION
Arizona – 1 seed
Top 3 seed profile: Nobody saw this coming in head coach Tommy Llyod’s first season, but Arizona has been as good as anyone in the country. Kerr Kriisa went down with an ankle injury, and he hopes to be back for the first weekend. Should he miss time it could expose Arizona to an early exit.
Player that could take over: Bennedict Mathurin
X factor: Azuolas Tubelis
How they win: They are similar to Kentucky and Gonzaga – they want to dominate inside and run in transition. They are 98th percentile in 2 point impact and 97th percentile in transition impact. Their size at each position is a massive advantage for them as they roll out lineups with a 6 ’3” Kriisa, 2 6’7” players along the wing, and Tubelis is 6’11”, while Christian Koloko is 7’1”. They are one of the few teams that can match Gonzaga’s size.
Wright State- 16 seeds
Player that could take over: Tanner Holden
X factor: Grant Basile
How they win: They get the ball inside and dominate. They are 99th percentile in paint touch volume and 97th percentile in 2 point impact. Grant Basile is a force inside. Tanner Holden is completely underrated and could take over a game against anyone. As great as Wright State is inside, they don’t have the same impact from deep, which could cost them a chance at an upset.
Bryant – 16 seeds
Player that could take over: Peter Kiss
X factor: Hall Elisias
How they win: Speed is the name of their game. They are in the 99th percentile in offensive speed. They want to make you play their game the whole game and beat you on conditioning. They use a mix of man and zone and are 95th percentile in defensive press impact. Depending on the matchups, their style can really bother an opponent. Peter Kiss has the talent to drop 30 points against any of these tournament teams.
Seton Hall – 8 seed
Player that could take over: Bryce Aiken
X factor: Kadary Richmond
How they win: The get the ball in Bryce Aiken’s hands and run a ton of ball screens (85th percentile). They are an athletic and really long team, which will likely cause problems for their tournament opponents. Richmond is a star defender who can shut down some elite scorers.
TCU – 9 seed
Player that could take over: Shahada Wells
X factor: Chuck O’Bannon
How they win: TCU wins on the glass as they are 100th percentile in offensive rebounding impact. They could be upset by a hot shooting team that they can’t match 3 for 3 with as they are in the 5th percentile in 3 point impact. Their offensive rebounding impact will help them generate more looks than their opponent to help offset what will likely be a lost battle from 3.
Houston – 5 seed
Player that could take over: Kyler Edwards
X factor: Fabian White
How they win: They win inside – both scoring at the rim and on the glass. They are 93rd percentile in 2 point impact and 97th percentile in offensive rebound impact. They have multiple playmakers, who can create for themselves and others; plus, Fabian White inside is a menace that creates matchup problems.
UAB – 12 seed
Player that could take over: Jordan Walker
X factor: Quan Jackson
How they win: They want to win their way – which is a track meet. They are 96th percentile in transition impact. Once the ball goes in, they turn it on defensively – they are 89th percentile in defensive press impact. Their game is tied together on both ends strategically.
Illinois – 4 seed
Player that could take over: Kofi Cockburn
X factor: Jacob Grandison
How they win: Illinois is a tale of two teams. Point guard Andre Curbelo missed a good portion of the season. He is back playing, but he has not had a winning impact. Illinois is 3-6 when Andre Curbelo plays over 20 minutes per game. They are 13-1 when he doesn’t play. Doesn’t bode well for a long tournament run. They play slow and get the ball inside (95th percentile in paint touches) – they want to dominant the game from inside-out with Kofi.
Chattanooga – 13 seed
Player that could take over: Malachi Smith
X factor: David Jean-Baptiste
How they win: Malach Smith is a name you will not hear when filling out your bracket, but you need to know him – he is a top 5-10 player in this tournament. They are a defensive first team with some freedom on offense. Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa gives them a big body inside. They are best when playing out of the post and picking on mismatches. They are 87th percentile in paint touch volume.
Colorado State – 6 seed
Player that could take over: David Roddy
X factor: Isaiah Stevens
How they win: They win inside. They are 95th percentile in 2 point impact. They go as David Roddy goes – he is one of 10-15 best players in this tournament and will be in the NBA soon.
Michigan – 11 seed
Player that could take over: Hunter Dickinson
X factor: DeVante Jones
How they win: Michigan was a projected top team coming into the season, but their season has been all over the place. The are 7-7 in their last 14 games and just snuck into the NCAA tournament. The talent is there. Dickinson is a top 10 player in this tournament. He will be a matchup nightmare for the teams in their region. No surprise that Michigan is 96th percentile in paint touches and 96th percentile in 2 point impact. If Michigan can win a game or two and gain some momentum, they can be a problem for these top seeds.
UPSET ALERT: Michigan has a high likelihood of pulling off an upset over Colorado State.
Tennessee – 3 seed
Top 3 seed profile: Tennessee is as good as any one in the country defensively. They are long and athletic and play into you. When Kennedy Chandler is hot offensively he is good as anyone in the country and can take over any game.
Player that could take over: Kennedy Chandler
X factor: Zakai Zeigler
How they win: They play into you and are aggressive on defense (88th percentile defensive aggressiveness). This all starts with Zakai Zeigler’s defensive prowess. He gets every 50-50 ball and makes winning plays. Worth noting that they have struggled with their press break in the last few games.
Longwood – 14 seed
Player that could take over: Isaiah Wilkins
X factor: Justin Hill
How they win: Threes! They are in the 90th percentile in 3 point impact. They are really athletic and like to attack in transition. Threes are the best way to pull off a major upset so they have a chance.
UPSET ALERT: There is a chance that Longwood can pull off an upset over Tennessee although it is unlikely.
Ohio State – 7 seed
Player that could take over: EJ Liddell
X factor: Malaki Branham
How they win: They are bigger, stronger, and more athletic than most teams. They want to get the ball into the paint (96th percentile in paint touch volume) to score it or kick for open 3s (93rd percentile in 3 point impact). Liddell and Branham are NBA players. They will be a tough matchup for any first round opponent.
Loyola (IL) – 10 seed
Player that could take over: Lucas Williamson
X factor: Aher Uguak
How they win: They can pull off some tournament upsets because of their impact from beyond the arc. They are in the 97th percentile for 3-point impact. Defensively, they have the ingredients to make a run – they are really switchable and have some great on-ball defenders.
UPSET ALERT: Loyola (IL) has a high likelihood of pulling off an upset over Ohio State.
Villanova – 2 seeds
Top 3 seed profile: Villanova plays Villanova basketball. They have experienced upper classman, who make the right play and have tremendous basketball IQ. They will not beat themselves. They have multiple shooters and when they need a basket, they will invert their offense with Gillespie and even Justin Moore.
Player that could take over: Collin Gillespie
X factor: Justin Moore
How they win: They make you play their game. They slow the game down (3rd percentile in offensive speed) and beat you from beyond the arc (94th percentile 3 point impact). Inverting their offense only helps them both slow the game down and get open looks from 3.
Delaware – 15 seed
Player that could take over: Jameer Nelson
X factor: Dylan Painter
How they win: They have had an impact from both inside the arc and from deep – 91st percentile in 2 point impact and 76th percentile in 3 point impact. They will need to hit from 3 if they want to pull off a first round upset. Who doesn’t want to see Jameer Nelson’s son, Jameer Nelson, pull off an upset?
MIDWEST REGION
Kansas – 1 seed
Top 3 seed profile: Kansas is led by player of the year candidate Ochai Agbaji, who is a great two player and can do just about everything. Throughout the years Kansas won games with their bigs, but they are now perimeter oriented.
Player that could take over: Ochai Agbaji
X factor: Christian Braun
How they win: They win inside. Despite playing smaller they still like to dominant inside especially early to set the tone/hit you with 6’10” big David McCormack. They are 97th percentile in 2 point impact and 87th percentile in offensive rebounding.
Texas Southern – 16 seed
Player that could take over: Brison Gresham
X factor: Joirdon Karl Nicholas
How they win: Texas Southern wins games by winning inside led by Brison Gresham is a Power 5 talent. They are 96th percentile in offensive rebounding impact and 93rd percentile in paint touch volume. Their chances at an upset will probably be hamstrung by their 13th percentile 3 point impact.
Texas A&M – Corpus Christi – 16 seed
Player that could take over: Isaac Mushila
X factor: Terrion Murdix
How they win: They have a unique style and force you to play at their style on both ends. Offensively, they are 97th percentile in offensive speed. They keep that same energy to roll to attack on defense – they are 97th percentile in defensive aggressiveness.
San Diego State – 8 seed
Player that could take over: Matt Bradley
X factor: Chad Baker-Mazara
How they win: They are a defense first team. They have tremendous on-ball defenders and bring the heat defensively. They are 80th percentile in defensive press impact. Baker and Bradley can hit big shots offensively to stay with teams on that end.
Creighton – 9 seed
Player that could take over: Ryan Kalkbrenner
X factor: Ryan Hawkins
How they win: This is a team that creates a problem for many teams because their best player is 7’1”. Not many teams have a player that can defend Kalkbrenner. Thanks to Kalkbrenner, Creighton is 90th percentile in 2 point impact. Creighton freshman Trey Alexander and Arthur Kaluma could explode during this tournament.
Iowa – 5 seed
Player that could take over: Keegan Murray
X factor: Jordan Bohannon
How they win: Nobody has been higher on Iowa than Impact Evaluator. We wrote here on February 16th that people should bet Iowa at 150/1 odds to win the title. They play fast, want to get out in transition, and want to rip 3s. They are 99th percentile in transition impact. No one in the country is playing better basketball than Iowa. No one.
Richmond – 12 seed
Player that could take over: Jacob Gilyard
X factor: Grant Golden
How they win: The Spiders pulled off a great Atlantic 10 run to get the automatic bid and are hot right now. Jacob Gilyard is a fantastic guard who will keep them in any game. They move the ball well (97th percentile in pass quality) and get good looks. 6-10 big man Grant Golden can be a matchup nightmare depending on their opponents.
Providence – 4 seed
Player that could take over: Jared Bynum
X factor: Nate Watson
How they win: Some call it luck, some call it knowing how to win, but it doesn’t matter – Providence wins close games. Jared Bynum is a tremendous leader and has been great to close games. Al Durham also shows up most to close games. Throughout the game, their plan is to get the ball inside to Nate Watson – they are 88th percentile paint touch volume. To close games, they let Bynum run the show.
South Dakota State – 13 seed
Player that could take over: Baylor Scheierman
X factor: Douglas Wilson
How they win: To start, Baylor Scheierman is a matchup problem as a 6’6” on ball playmaker. Add in Douglas Wilson inside and South Dakota State can dominant teams inside. They are 98th percentile in 2 point impact. They shoot it well from deep and take great shots. They will be a hard team to knock out.
UPSET ALERT: South Dakota State has a high likelihood of pulling off an upset over Providence.
LSU – 6 seed
Player that could take over: Darius Days
X factor: Brandon Murray
How they win: LSU is one of the most athletic teams in the tournament. They love to run in transition (93nd percentile in transition impact). Defensively, they are super aggressive – 99th percentile in defensive aggressiveness. Their head coach Will Wade was just fired. How will the team respond?
Iowa State – 11 seed
Player that could take over: Izaiah Brockington
X factor: Aljaz Kunc
How they win: Iowa State moves the ball incredibly well on offense and makes great passes – they are 97th percentile in pass quality. Defensively, they are aggressive and use their athleticism to guard up into players. The question for them is do they hit shots and can they create enough against these top teams.
UPSET ALERT: Iowa State has a high likelihood of pulling off an upset over LSU.
Wisconsin- 3 seed
Top 3 seed profile: This team probably doesn’t make the tournament without Johnny Davis. He is a national player of the year candidate and has carried them all year. He’s a true 3 level scorer with an elite stepback that is almost unguardable. His first step is really fast.
Player that could take over: Johnny Davis
X factor: Tyler Wahl
How they win: Wisconsin as a team has holes. Their impact from 3 is minimal (18th percentile in 3 point impact). They aren’t great in transition. They will go as far as Davis will take them and he isn’t 100% healthy right now.
Colgate – 14 seed
Player that could take over: Nelly Cummings
X factor: Tucker Richardson
How they win: They are an elite team from deep – 98th percentile in 3 point impact. They play a smart game, and it all starts with Tucker Richardson’s leadership. He is always in the right spot. Any underdog that has this impact from 3 has a chance.
UPSET ALERT: Colgate has a high likelihood of pulling off an upset over Wisconsin.
USC – 7 seed
Player that could take over: Isaiah Mobley
X factor: Boogie Ellis
How they win: They win with their size – Ellis is 6’3”, they play three 6’9” players, and Mobley is their 6’10” big. They want to get the ball inside (80th percentile paint touch volume) and they are a great offensive rebounding team. Their size will be an issue for teams during this tournament.
Miami – 10 seed
Player that could take over: Kam McGusty
X factor: Jordan Miller
How they win: Miami is an athletic group that can really shoot the ball. They like to use their athleticism to attack in transition – they are 89th percentile transition impact. They have struggled lately though, winning only 4 of their last 7 games.
Auburn – 2 seed
Top 3 seed profile: Auburn landed multiple key transfers to set up a tremendous season. Their big Walker Kessler is a top 10 player and an elite defensive big anchoring their aggressive defense. Unlike some of the other elite defensive teams, Auburn has great shotmakers that other teams lack providing them with a higher ceiling
Player that could take over: Wendell Green
X factor: Jabari Smith
How they win: They have great athlete and want to get out in transition (91st in transition impact). They will rip 3s in transition because they have multiple shotmakers. Wendell Green can hit deep NBA 3s and Jabari Smith is arguably the #1 pick in the NBA draft. Smith is Durant-like at 6’10”; he is long, athletic, shooting 43% from 3, blocks shots, etc.
Jacksonville State – 15 seed
Player that could take over: Darian Adams
X factor: Demaree King
How they win: To pull off any large upset, the underdog needs to win the battle from 3. That is great news for Jacksonville State. They are 98th percentile in 3 point impact. Demaree King will be the X factor in their first round matchup – he is shooting 45%+ on the season and will need to hit at a high level.
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