In the pursuit of additional wins, does time spent on free throws matter?
In order to determine the impact of practice on free throw performance, I asked coaches how many free throws their players shot, on average, throughout the year. The consensus among the coaches is that players shoot substantially more free throws on a typical day during the season than they do on a typical day in the off-season.
Does a player’s free throw percentage improve with increased repetition?
The best way to see the effect of these increased practice free throws on free throw percentage (FT%) is to split out FT% by month. Free throw percentage, unlike FG% or 3P%, can be compared over time throughout a season because it is a shot independent of both defense and level of competition. To compare apples to apples, this analysis compares home and away free throw percentages separately.
The chart below shows the monthly free throw percentage splits for the 2018-19 season (the last full season without a covid impact).
As demonstrated above, the compounding effect of increased free throw repetitions, both in practice and games, coincides with the lift in FT% as the season progresses.
Another approach to study this question is to look at a player’s free throw percentage by every 20 free throws taken during the season.
The chart below shows a similar finding, demonstrating that a player’s free throw percentage is highly correlated with the free throw attempt number. A player is much more likely to make their 100th free throw attempt of the season than they are their 5th attempt.
To ensure that this conclusion is not influenced by an uneven distribution of players (with poor free throw shooters taking less overall free throws), I split the data out by a player’s free throw shooting level.
Using season-long free throw percentages, I split the players into two groups – good free throw shooters and poor free throw shooters. The chart below shows the free throw percentage by every 20 free throws attempted for the two groups.
Again, the conclusion holds – free throw percentage improves over the course of the season in conjunction with the increase in free throws practiced per week.
Practicing free throws matters.
Free throw percentage not only improves throughout the season, but also over the course of a player’s career. The chart below shows the free throw percentages by year for the last 5 seasons.
This trend goes beyond college basketball.
The NBA also sees a lift in FT% over the course of the season. The chart below shows the NBA FT% by every 20 free throws attempted for six seasons.
Similar to the results from college basketball, NBA players are more likely to make a free throw later in the season than they are earlier in the year. NBA players also improve as free throw shooters over the course of their career.
Note the valleys that occur to start every season. These valleys demonstrate the FT% drop-off that occurs over the summer due to lower number of free throws shot in the off-season.
So why are free throws often ignored in the off-season? Why do we not consider it something for players to work on in their off-season development plan?
Practicing free throws in the off-season will help players realize their inevitable gains earlier in-season.
Unlike other strategies that increase win percentage in basketball, a team doesn’t need more money to practice free throws. Teams can win more games simply by having their players practice free throws more frequently.
Every team is searching for ways to gain incremental wins at low cost and practicing free throws should be at the top of every team’s list.
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